Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
27/0646Z from Region 3107 (S24W13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (28 Sep) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Sep,
30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 810 km/s at 27/1630Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 27/0428Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 27/0925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1256 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (29 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on
day three (30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 135 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 015/016-007/008-014/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 15% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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