Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0750Z from Region 3089 (S22W13). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep,
03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 31/0253Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 30/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 172 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 113 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 110/110/115 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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