Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 518 km/s at 03/2153Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
04/1607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 109 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 112/112/112 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 006/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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