Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0740Z from Region 3124 (S34W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Oct,
20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 577 km/s at 18/0336Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/0450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 707 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Oct), quiet to active levels on day
two (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 114 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 006/005-012/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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