Viewing archive of Monday, 14 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/1340Z from Region 3140 (N25W62). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 528 km/s at 13/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/1136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 207 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 142 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 142/138/132 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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