Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1140Z from Region 3153 (S17W59). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 11/1753Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 148 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 145/140/130 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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