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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/0052Z from Region 3182 (S17E46). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 07/0307Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 06/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Jan, 10 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M40%40%40%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 179
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 180/178/178
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  008/008-006/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%30%

All times in UTC

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