Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/0948Z from Region 3184 (S13E81). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10
Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 08/0847Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0638Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 184 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 185/185/180 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 006/005-006/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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