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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 09/1850Z from Region 3184 (S14E67). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 09/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M70%70%70%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 191
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan 192/190/190
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  006/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%40%20%

All times in UTC

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