Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/1955Z from Region 3153 (S15W85). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Dec, 15 Dec, 16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 13/0603Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 13/1103Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
12/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 369 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec, 16
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 153 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 152/148/144 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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