Viewing archive of Friday, 3 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
03/0249Z from Region 3204 (N24, L=030). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 02/2229Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 03/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
03/1412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 135 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 005/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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