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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/2029Z from Region 3135 (N27E65). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct,
30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 28/1942Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 28/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
28/1419Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 129 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 128/128/125 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 017/020-018/028-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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