Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0956Z from Region 3130 (S24W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 29/0242Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 29/0017Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 29/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1040 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 134 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 132/130/130 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 090/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 019/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 016/020-013/015-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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