Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
12/0018Z from Region 3141 (N15W27). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 12/1810Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 11/2228Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Nov 138 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 140/130/125 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 009/008-007/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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