Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
16/1606Z from Region 3123 (N27W68). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 16/1309Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 119 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 015/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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