Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
31/0248Z from Region 3180 (N19E56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan,
03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 31/1938Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 31/0143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2114 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 165 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 022/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 009/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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