Viewing archive of Monday, 2 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
02/0621Z from Region 3176 (N19W29). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan,
05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 02/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 02/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3546 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jan) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 146 Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 02 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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