Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
04/1845Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 04/0209Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 04/0924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 151 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 152/154/152 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 015/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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