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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 31/0909Z from Region 3260 (N24W85). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Apr) and likely to be low on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 31/0346Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 31/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/0258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M15%01%01%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 129
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  014/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  011/012-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%25%
Major-severe storm50%20%40%

All times in UTC

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