Viewing archive of Friday, 31 March 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
31/0909Z from Region 3260 (N24W85). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (01 Apr) and likely to
be low on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 31/0346Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 31/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/0258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 129 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 011/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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