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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M25%20%15%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 140
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  015/018-014/016-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%35%35%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%45%40%

All times in UTC

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