Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/1423Z from Region 3289 (N20E58). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr, 29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 26/2009Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 26/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
26/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4675 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(29 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Apr 137 Predicted 27 Apr-29 Apr 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 26 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 015/018-019/025-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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