Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 April 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/1114Z from Region 3288 (S23W07). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 27/0546Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3355 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Apr 141
  Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        27 Apr 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  019/025-013/016-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.08nT), the direction is slightly South (-7.51nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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