Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1114Z from Region 3288 (S23W07). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr,
30 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 27/0546Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 26/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 27/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3355 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Apr 141 Predicted 28 Apr-30 Apr 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 27 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 019/025-013/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr to 30 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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