Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
23/1213Z from Region 3311 (N18E05). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (24 May, 25 May) and likely to be moderate with a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 23/0257Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/0104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1236 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 May, 26 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 May, 25 May)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 155 Predicted 24 May-26 May 155/155/160 90 Day Mean 23 May 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 019/021-011/015-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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