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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 04/1557Z from Region 3234 (N25W90). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar, 07 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 03/2202Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/2127Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/2225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1697 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (05 Mar, 06 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 182
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  016/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  016/022-016/020-015/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%45%30%
Minor storm30%25%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm65%65%40%

All times in UTC

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