Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
29/1017Z from Region 3288 (S23W31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May,
02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 720 km/s at 29/1552Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 29/1024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 29/1007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12967 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01
May, 02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 156 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 016/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 014/015-012/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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