Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
30/2028Z from Region 3293 (N13E82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May,
03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 671 km/s at 29/2153Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 30/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
30/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7832 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02
May, 03 May).
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 154 Predicted 01 May-03 May 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 012/012-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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