Viewing archive of Monday, 3 April 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/2313Z from Region 3270 (S23W04). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 02/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 03/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/1933Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4292 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 134 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 014/012/010 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 011/014-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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