Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 May 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/0901Z from Region 3294 (S07W47). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 May, 13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 10/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0547Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0228Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 29 pfu at 10/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 May). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (12
May), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (13 May) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 May).
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 70% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 163 Predicted 12 May-14 May 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 11 May 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 014/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 020/030-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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