Viewing archive of Friday, 9 June 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jun 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/1711Z from Region 3331 (S22E37). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun,
12 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 366 km/s at 09/1327Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
09/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 253 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 164 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 163/157/160 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 005/005-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun to 12 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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