Viewing archive of Friday, 7 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/0629Z from Region 3359 (S22W27). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul,
10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 07/0326Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 07/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 07/0033Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 650 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 161 Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 07 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 014/018-013/015-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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