Viewing archive of Thursday, 13 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
13/1920Z from Region 3372 (N24E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Jul,
15 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 12/2124Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 13/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 203 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 200/202/198 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 012/014-016/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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