Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
15/0741Z from Region 3363 (S22W47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 15/1856Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/0944Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(18 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 179 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 180/180/182 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 017/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/010-009/012-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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