Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
16/1746Z from Region 3363 (S24W59). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 16/1941Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 16/1947Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
16/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 17 pfu at 16/0735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jul), have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jul) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 184 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 184/182/178 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 013/018-018/026-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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