Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 July 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jul 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1624Z from Region 3380 (S10W12). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul,
01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 29/1338Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/1607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 153 pfu at 29/0920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(01 Aug). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (30 Jul)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (31 Jul,
01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 40% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 179 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 011/015-008/010-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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