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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0424Z from Region 3386 (N11W62). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (05 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 04/0620Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 04/0824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1635Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (05 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M55%35%35%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 171
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 165/162/164
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug   NA/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  020/028-013/015-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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