Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 August 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Aug 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
12/2352Z from Region 3395 (N13W44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 443 km/s at 12/2157Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
13/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
12/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1368 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Aug, 15 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 150 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 140/130/135 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 005/005-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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