Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 September 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/0155Z from Region 3423 (N16W16). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep,
13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 546 km/s at 10/0220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 164 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/008-011/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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