Viewing archive of Friday, 19 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0153Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 19/0248Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/0344Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan,
21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 157 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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| Last M-flare | 2025/03/27 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/26 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 131.2 -21.8 |