Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 February 2024

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/0743Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 01/0757Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 238 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Feb, 03 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

Class M	25%	25%	25%
Class X	05%	01%	01%
Proton	05%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       01 Feb 137
  Predicted   02 Feb-04 Feb 135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        01 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Feb  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb  006/005-006/005-012/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	35%
Minor storm	01%	01%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	10%
Minor storm	20%	20%	25%
Major-severe storm	20%	20%	50%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Aalborg
Tallinn
Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Saint Petersburg, Surgut, Syktyvkar
Stockholm

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (14.44nT), the direction is North (13.76nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-149nT)

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