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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0743Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb,
04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 461 km/s at 01/0757Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
01/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 238 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (02 Feb, 03 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (04 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 137 Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 01 Feb 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 006/005-006/005-012/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb to 04 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |