Viewing archive of Friday, 5 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0809Z from Region 3534 (S15W61). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 05/1209Z. Protons greater than
10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25 pfu at
05/0035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 153 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 006/005-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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