Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0155Z from Region 3536 (N06E24). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 03/2122Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/1705Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 20 pfu at 04/0835Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Jan, 06 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (07 Jan). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (05 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days two and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 126 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |