Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
06/0312Z from Region 3575 (S36W78). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1104 km/s at 06/0820Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet levels on
day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Feb).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (07 Feb) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (08 Feb, 09
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 190 Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 009/008-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |