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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/0217Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance
for an X-class flare on day three (24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/2303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24
Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 170 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 170/175/180 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |