Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
25/1522Z from Region 3561 (S17W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/0614Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
25/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
25/1743Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan), active to
minor storm levels on day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (28 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 161 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 018/025-023/030-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR 13883 93"Sorry, you have been blocked" 2New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 19Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1182Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1555
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |