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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/0125Z from Region 3590 (N18W80). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (02 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 01/0342Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
Class M50%25%25%
Class X10%01%01%
Proton15%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Mar 153
  Predicted   02 Mar-04 Mar 150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        01 Mar 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar  009/012-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

All times in UTC

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