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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0125Z from Region 3590 (N18W80). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (02 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 01/0342Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 01/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Mar, 03 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Mar). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 153 Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 01 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 009/012-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar to 04 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |