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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
25/0644Z from Region 3615 (S13W27). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27
Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 909 km/s at 25/0750Z. Total IMF
reached 30 nT at 24/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 25/0840Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 62 pfu at 24/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (28
Mar). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (26 Mar), have
a chance of crossing threshold on day two (27 Mar) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 190 Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 25 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 043/093 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 023/039 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 020/022-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |