Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 February 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
27/0742Z from Region 3590 (N18W40). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 27/0703Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 26/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 27/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Feb 168 Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 008/005/005 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 01 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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