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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 26/1624Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 25/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/0008Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 129 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 29 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 172
  Predicted   27 Feb-29 Feb 170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  014/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb  009/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%20%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

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