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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
25/1722Z from Region 3590 (N18W13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27
Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 25/0358Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 25/1925Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/0734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb,
27 Feb, 28 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 181 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 180/175/175 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 010/012-009/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 160.9 +7.7 |