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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 21/2152Z from Region 3638 (S18W35). There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 22/0457Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 492 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day three (25 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr, 25 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 227
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 225/210/190
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  014/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  011/015-010/010-017/021

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%35%
Minor storm20%05%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm55%30%50%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna

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